Opponent 3P% vs expected based on shooter skill and shot difficulty. Click column headers to sort.
Regular-season Adj OffRtg / DefRtg / NetRtg with opponent strength and home court removed.
Opponent strength is estimated from all games so far, starting from each team's
projected offense and defense (NERD + DARKO average),
which counts like 10 games and fades as real results accumulate.
#
Team
Record
Adj Record
Net Games Swung
Opp Exp 3P%
Opp Actual 3P%
Opp 3P% Diff
Team Exp 3P%
Team Actual 3P%
Team 3P% Diff
Net 3P% Diff
Adj OffRtg
Adj DefRtg
Adj NetRtg
1
ATL
2-0
2-0
0
34.5%
26.4%
-8.1%
36.8%
39.5%
+2.7%
+10.8%
119.8
106.1
+13.7
2
DET
2-0
1-1
+1
37.5%
34.4%
-3.1%
38.6%
42.3%
+3.7%
+6.8%
115.1
114.4
+0.7
3
HOU
2-0
1-1
+1
35.5%
31.1%
-4.4%
35.5%
42.6%
+7.1%
+11.5%
114.6
114.2
+0.4
4
LAL
2-0
2-0
0
36.0%
32.9%
-3.1%
35.6%
41.7%
+6.1%
+9.2%
115.4
110.9
+4.5
5
MIN
2-0
2-0
0
35.5%
22.2%
-13.3%
35.7%
40.2%
+4.5%
+17.8%
115.9
108.9
+7.0
6
MEM
2-0
2-0
0
35.6%
34.2%
-1.4%
35.8%
38.4%
+2.6%
+4.0%
114.1
105.9
+8.2
7
PHI
2-0
2-0
0
37.1%
29.0%
-8.1%
36.6%
26.5%
-10.1%
-2.0%
112.1
103.9
+8.2
8
OKC
2-0
1-1
+1
35.6%
26.9%
-8.7%
36.5%
33.8%
-2.7%
+6.0%
108.6
102.5
+6.1
9
TOR
2-0
2-0
0
34.1%
21.9%
-12.2%
37.8%
26.2%
-11.6%
+0.6%
120.2
100.9
+19.3
10
POR
2-0
2-0
0
33.5%
22.2%
-11.3%
35.3%
34.7%
-0.6%
+10.7%
122.3
106.0
+16.3
11
IND
1-1
2-0
-1
36.2%
37.5%
+1.3%
36.5%
25.8%
-10.7%
-12.0%
118.4
111.0
+7.4
12
LAC
1-1
1-1
0
35.5%
36.7%
+1.2%
36.5%
41.7%
+5.2%
+4.0%
111.7
109.0
+2.7
13
CHA
1-1
1-1
0
36.1%
39.5%
+3.4%
35.0%
26.3%
-8.7%
-12.1%
104.3
110.4
-6.1
14
BOS
1-1
1-1
0
38.0%
38.8%
+0.8%
38.0%
39.5%
+1.5%
+0.7%
113.4
113.9
-0.5
15
UTA
1-1
0-2
+1
35.2%
35.0%
-0.2%
35.5%
35.8%
+0.3%
+0.5%
109.7
116.9
-7.2
16
DAL
1-1
0-2
+1
36.3%
33.8%
-2.5%
36.1%
35.2%
-0.9%
+1.6%
113.2
117.4
-4.2
17
WAS
1-1
1-1
0
36.6%
29.3%
-7.3%
34.7%
27.7%
-7.0%
+0.3%
115.3
113.3
+2.0
18
DEN
0-1
0-1
0
36.5%
25.6%
-10.9%
35.9%
26.7%
-9.2%
+1.7%
99.5
114.6
-15.1
19
BKN
0-1
0-1
0
35.2%
31.2%
-4.0%
35.6%
38.7%
+3.1%
+7.1%
97.1
110.4
-13.3
20
GSW
0-2
0-2
0
35.4%
38.8%
+3.4%
35.6%
28.6%
-7.0%
-10.4%
111.9
113.8
-1.9
21
CHI
0-1
0-1
0
37.5%
32.3%
-5.2%
33.8%
11.1%
-22.7%
-17.5%
104.9
125.1
-20.2
22
CLE
0-1
0-1
0
36.1%
25.0%
-11.1%
35.5%
24.1%
-11.4%
-0.3%
105.1
112.1
-7.0
23
ORL
0-2
0-2
0
36.6%
38.4%
+1.8%
34.2%
26.6%
-7.6%
-9.4%
111.4
116.2
-4.8
24
NYK
0-2
0-2
0
37.2%
32.9%
-4.3%
37.9%
37.0%
-0.9%
+3.4%
104.8
113.7
-8.9
25
NOP
0-2
1-1
-1
36.1%
33.8%
-2.3%
34.7%
32.1%
-2.6%
-0.3%
112.5
118.3
-5.8
26
MIL
0-1
0-1
0
35.1%
21.4%
-13.7%
35.5%
36.6%
+1.1%
+14.8%
111.4
134.5
-23.1
27
MIA
0-2
1-1
-1
36.9%
44.3%
+7.4%
36.9%
27.4%
-9.5%
-16.9%
112.9
112.9
+0.0
28
PHX
0-1
0-1
0
35.0%
40.4%
+5.4%
33.6%
18.8%
-14.8%
-20.2%
97.4
117.1
-19.7
29
SAC
0-2
0-2
0
35.9%
33.7%
-2.2%
34.0%
27.1%
-6.9%
-4.7%
109.7
122.9
-13.2
30
SAS
0-2
2-0
-2
35.7%
42.9%
+7.2%
35.6%
29.7%
-5.9%
-13.1%
109.6
106.0
+3.6
#
Team
Record
Adj Record
Net Games Swung
Opp Exp 3P%
Opp Actual 3P%
Opp 3P% Diff
Team Exp 3P%
Team Actual 3P%
Team 3P% Diff
Net 3P% Diff
Adj OffRtg
Adj DefRtg
Adj NetRtg
No games yet
Highest Shooting Variance Games
Regular season games where adjusted shooting variance most dramatically affected the outcome
Date
Matchup
Actual
Adjusted
Shooting Luck
2026-10-23
DET @ MIA
128-111
117.5-124.9 ⚠
DET: +24.3
2026-10-21
PHX @ POR
83-124
96.9-116.5
POR: +21.4
2026-10-23
ATL @ CHA
128-81
125.7-99.6
ATL: +20.9
2026-10-21
GSW @ LAL
105-127
119.6-121.0
LAL: +20.6
2026-10-21
CHI @ TOR
92-135
117.5-140.1
TOR: +20.4
2026-10-23
DAL @ IND
121-105
116.1-118.9 ⚠
DAL: +18.8
2026-10-21
MIN @ MIA
131-106
123.7-116.3
MIN: +17.7
2026-10-23
MIN @ ORL
115-93
117.2-110.1
MIN: +14.9
2026-10-20
OKC @ SAS
116-104
109.3-111.5 ⚠
OKC: +14.1
2026-10-21
DAL @ HOU
110-128
114.7-120.6
HOU: +12.1
2026-10-21
MIL @ WAS
116-128
115.4-139.4
MIL: +12.0
2026-10-21
SAC @ LAC
96-121
107.8-121.4
LAC: +11.4
2026-10-23
TOR @ WAS
112-102
124.2-104.4
WAS: +9.8
2026-10-21
IND @ NOP
123-120
129.5-116.7
NOP: +9.8
2026-10-23
HOU @ SAS
114-110
110.3-115.6 ⚠
HOU: +9.2
⚠ = Adjusted margin flips the winner
Highest Shooting Variance Games — Playoffs
Playoff games where adjusted shooting variance most dramatically affected the outcome