NBA Shooting Luck-Adjusted Results

2025-26 Season through 2026-06-13 | 1230 games analyzed

Depth Charts League Team

Games by Date

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Game Calendar

Team Rankings

Opponent 3P% vs expected based on shooter skill and shot difficulty. Click column headers to sort.

# Team Record Adj Record Net Games Swung Opp Exp 3P% Opp Actual 3P% Opp 3P% Diff Team Exp 3P% Team Actual 3P% Team 3P% Diff Net 3P% Diff Adj OffRtg Adj DefRtg Adj NetRtg
1 OKC 64-18 66-16 -2 36.5% 36.9% +0.4% 37.6% 36.5% -1.1% -1.5% 117.1 106.4 +10.7
2 SAS 62-20 60-22 +2 36.4% 35.2% -1.2% 36.2% 35.9% -0.3% +0.9% 117.3 110.2 +7.1
3 DET 60-22 60-22 0 36.7% 34.5% -2.2% 36.3% 35.6% -0.7% +1.5% 116.1 109.3 +6.8
4 BOS 56-26 61-21 -5 36.2% 35.8% -0.4% 36.9% 36.7% -0.2% +0.2% 117.7 110.7 +7.0
5 DEN 54-28 39-43 +15 36.4% 34.9% -1.5% 37.7% 39.6% +1.9% +3.4% 117.9 117.1 +0.8
6 LAL 53-29 49-33 +4 36.4% 35.2% -1.2% 36.1% 35.9% -0.2% +1.0% 116.2 115.3 +0.9
7 NYK 53-29 55-27 -2 36.6% 36.2% -0.4% 37.9% 37.3% -0.6% -0.2% 118.1 111.5 +6.6
8 HOU 52-30 53-29 -1 35.8% 35.1% -0.7% 37.1% 36.4% -0.7% -0.0% 116.5 112.3 +4.2
9 CLE 52-30 59-23 -7 36.3% 37.2% +0.9% 36.9% 36.0% -0.9% -1.8% 118.0 111.6 +6.4
10 MIN 49-33 49-33 0 36.5% 35.5% -1.0% 37.0% 37.0% +0.0% +1.0% 114.3 112.4 +1.9
11 ATL 46-36 41-41 +5 36.4% 35.5% -0.9% 37.0% 37.1% +0.1% +1.0% 113.6 112.2 +1.4
12 TOR 46-36 43-39 +3 36.5% 34.9% -1.6% 36.5% 35.4% -1.1% +0.5% 114.3 112.4 +1.9
13 PHI 45-37 44-38 +1 36.6% 35.3% -1.3% 36.3% 34.9% -1.4% -0.1% 113.6 114.1 -0.5
14 PHX 45-37 45-37 0 36.6% 34.7% -1.9% 36.7% 36.1% -0.6% +1.3% 114.0 113.2 +0.8
15 ORL 45-37 41-41 +4 36.4% 35.3% -1.1% 35.5% 34.3% -1.2% -0.1% 113.0 112.7 +0.3
16 CHA 44-38 54-28 -10 36.2% 35.9% -0.3% 37.4% 37.8% +0.4% +0.7% 115.8 111.6 +4.2
17 MIA 43-39 48-34 -5 36.8% 35.8% -1.0% 36.6% 36.1% -0.5% +0.5% 114.6 112.9 +1.7
18 POR 42-40 44-38 -2 36.6% 35.8% -0.8% 35.1% 34.3% -0.8% +0.0% 112.4 112.3 +0.1
19 LAC 42-40 42-40 0 36.6% 36.4% -0.2% 37.0% 36.8% -0.2% +0.0% 115.0 113.8 +1.2
20 GSW 37-45 49-33 -12 36.5% 36.0% -0.5% 37.4% 35.6% -1.8% -1.3% 114.6 113.0 +1.6
21 MIL 32-50 26-56 +6 36.4% 37.5% +1.1% 38.8% 38.7% -0.1% -1.2% 111.5 116.0 -4.5
22 CHI 31-51 30-52 +1 36.6% 36.8% +0.2% 36.4% 35.6% -0.8% -1.0% 111.9 115.6 -3.7
23 DAL 26-56 25-57 +1 36.4% 35.0% -1.4% 36.6% 34.4% -2.2% -0.8% 111.7 115.7 -4.0
24 NOP 26-56 22-60 +4 36.7% 35.0% -1.7% 35.3% 34.7% -0.6% +1.1% 113.0 118.3 -5.3
25 MEM 25-57 24-58 +1 36.4% 36.4% +0.0% 35.3% 35.3% +0.0% +0.0% 110.4 116.0 -5.6
26 SAC 22-60 27-55 -5 36.5% 37.9% +1.4% 35.3% 34.0% -1.3% -2.7% 110.6 117.2 -6.6
27 UTA 22-60 20-62 +2 36.8% 37.2% +0.4% 35.1% 34.5% -0.6% -1.0% 112.4 119.1 -6.7
28 BKN 20-62 22-60 -2 37.0% 38.1% +1.1% 35.3% 34.1% -1.2% -2.3% 108.0 116.0 -8.0
29 IND 19-63 15-67 +4 36.7% 35.5% -1.2% 35.8% 35.6% -0.2% +1.0% 109.4 117.3 -7.9
30 WAS 17-65 17-65 0 36.5% 36.8% +0.3% 35.2% 35.9% +0.7% +0.4% 108.1 119.5 -11.4

Highest Shooting Variance Games

Regular season games where adjusted shooting variance most dramatically affected the outcome

Date Matchup Actual Adjusted Shooting Luck
2026-03-11 HOU @ DEN 93-129 119.0-116.1 ⚠ DEN: +38.8
2025-11-02 SAS @ PHX 118-130 131.4-109.9 ⚠ PHX: +33.5
2025-12-05 PHX @ HOU 98-117 118.6-106.5 ⚠ HOU: +31.1
2026-01-13 ATL @ LAL 116-141 126.5-120.5 ⚠ LAL: +31.0
2026-03-23 HOU @ CHI 124-132 137.6-114.7 ⚠ CHI: +31.0
2026-01-12 LAL @ SAC 112-124 121.0-102.4 ⚠ SAC: +30.6
2025-11-29 DEN @ PHX 130-112 107.2-119.8 DEN: +30.6
2026-01-22 MIA @ POR 110-127 129.6-116.7 ⚠ POR: +29.9
2025-12-14 MIL @ BKN 82-127 98.3-113.5 BKN: +29.8
2026-01-14 DEN @ DAL 118-109 112.0-132.7 DEN: +29.8
2026-02-19 ORL @ SAC 131-94 107.2-99.6 ORL: +29.5
2026-01-20 TOR @ GSW 145-127 117.9-129.1 TOR: +29.2
2026-01-17 IND @ DET 78-121 96.3-110.4 DET: +28.9
2026-01-25 BKN @ LAC 89-126 105.1-113.9 LAC: +28.2
2026-01-05 CHA @ OKC 124-97 109.5-110.4 CHA: +27.9

⚠ = Adjusted margin flips the winner

Generated 2026-07-19 15:10 | View on GitHub